Calm Conditions

On my way into work this morning, the temperature felt a lot colder than it looked.  A light wind from the W was present.  When I left work earlier this evening, it felt much warmer.  Clear conditions were present and a few cirrus clouds.

Figure 1 shows that there is currently a stationary front in the area.  Until something causes this to move, the mass of cold air behind the front will remain in place.  Based on the stationary front and high pressure, there will be minimal changes in the weather tomorrow.  Cloud cover will be clear to scattered.  Temperature will be about the same as today.  If any wind is present, it will be a light wind out of the west until the high pressure moves through.  Precipitation will be unlikely due to the high pressure.

Figure 1.  Current surface map from The Weather Channel.

Minimal Changes

Except for early this morning and late this afternoon, I wasn't able to get outside and make any weather observations.  However, my predictions were fairly accurate based on what I did see.  Early this morning, the sky was overcast with stratus clouds.  The temperature was still cold, but it was still fairly early.  By the time I was walking home late this afternoon, the sky was clear to scattered consisting of primarily cirrus clouds.  Temperature was still very warm, which was supported by the recent snow melt.

A quick glance at Figure 1 might indicate that some precipitation is in store for us in the near future.  However, a closer examination reveals an occluded front, which means that the storm is basically cut off from its energy source. Thus, I believe the storm will have run its course by the time it reaches Eau Claire.  With the low pressure moving through, a light wind should start coming from the SW by tomorrow.  Temperature will be roughly the same as today, possibly a little warmer.  Cloud cover will be scattered to broken. There will be a small chance of precipitation.

Figure 1.  Current weather map from The Weather Channel.

High Pressure

My predictions from yesterday were very accurate due to the high pressure in the area.  For most of the day, the sun was out along with scattered clouds. The clouds today weren't as obvious to me.  After looking through the field guide, I'm still not totally sure.  They were definitely some type of cumulus though since they had the round, puffy features.  However, their changing sizes and patterns threw me off.

The temperature was fairly warm.  However, the position of the jet stream prevented it from being much warmer.  As shown in Figure 1, there is a significant trough in the jet stream.  This trough is bringing a cold, continental polar air mass south into our area.  If the trough in the jet stream moves farther east, then it could bring a warmer, continental tropical air mass north. This would increase the temperature in the area.

Based on the current high pressure, there will be minimal changes in the weather tomorrow.  Cloud cover will remain scattered.  No precipitation. However, temperature will increase due to a SW wind carrying a continental tropical air mass.

Figure 1.  Map of the jet stream from Intellicast.

Minimal Snow

To be honest, today was something of a letdown.  I actually don't mind snow for the most part, and I was looking forward to one more big snowfall. However, this storm fell far below the early predictions.  By the time I got up early this morning, it was already snowing.  It was coming down steadily on my way into school.  However, the temperature was still fairly warm.  As a result, a lot of the snow melted when it reached the ground.

By the time I was walking home late this afternoon, the snow was done falling.  It only amounted to a couple of inches.  Stratus clouds remained in the sky after the snowfall was over.  Light wind conditions were prevalent for most of the day.

Figure 1 shows two high-pressure systems in the general area.  Based on that, I predict a fairly calm day tomorrow.  Clear to scattered sky conditions.  A light N/NW wind will reduce the temperature.  Precipitation will be unlikely.

Figure 1.  Current surface map from The Weather Channel.

Winter Weather Advisory

The hype behind the snowstorm that should be starting shortly started last week, but it has gradually decreased in magnitude this week.  However, the area is still under a winter weather advisory that runs through 6 pm tomorrow. Figure 1 warns that we still might get a fair amount of snow.

When I left the house late this morning, the temperature was fairly warm. Broken cloud cover was allowing some sunlight through, which only helped to increase the temperature and melting of snow.  On my way to work this afternoon, the conditions were overcast.  The clouds were stratus, possibly stratocumulus since I seen some variation in the cloud cover.  On my way home at nine, the snowfall still hadn't begun.

I predict it will begin snowing shortly and continue through the night. However, the snowfall should taper off by the early afternoon.  Temperature will decrease, but it won't get too cold.  Light to moderate winds will be prevalent for most of the day.  After the snowfall ceases, scattered to broken clouds will linger.

Figure 1.  Wednesday forecast from AccuWeather.

Snow?

So my prediction from yesterday was far from accurate.  The only accurate part was the SE wind, which was prevalent throughout the day.  This helped moderate the temperature like I thought it would.  However, we did see some precipitation.  As I arrived at the school around 9:30 this morning, it was beginning to snow.  The intensity of this snowfall gradually increased, and it was coming down fairly good for a while.  However, it didn't amount to much (only 0.3 inches according to The Weather Channel).  The snow eventually stopped in the early afternoon, and a layer of stratus clouds remained for the rest of the day mostly.

As seen in Figure 1, there is still a few low-pressure systems in the area.  The counter-clockwise rotation of the winds in Figure 2 corresponds nicely with these low-pressure systems.  Based on this low pressure, there should be a high amount of cloud cover again tomorrow.  A little precipitation is possible. Temperature will remain mild due to a continuation of wind from the S/SE.

Figure 1.  Current surface map from The Weather Channel.  Low-
pressure system to our SSE.

Figure 2.  Map of current surface winds from Intellicast.
Counter-clockwise rotation prevalent in southern Wisconsin.

More Than It Appears

On my walk to school this morning, the sky was mostly clear with a few cirrus clouds.  The temperature was fairly cold.  This was primarily due to the high-pressure system to our north causing a north wind.  Later on this morning, a few more clouds started moving in from the west.  The most evident clouds I seen were altocumulus undulatus.  I was going to get a picture of them, but they were already in the eastern part of the sky (preventing a good picture with the sun) by the time I was able to get outside.

On my walk home late this afternoon, the sky was overcast with some type of stratus cloud(s).  The temperature was fairly similar to this morning, but a little warmer.  Wind was still coming out of the north.  However, the wind is currently coming out of the ENE.  This makes sense since the high-pressure system is now to our ENE (Figure 1).

Based on the current path of the high-pressure system, the temperature should increase tomorrow due to a SE wind.  Cloud cover will be clear to scattered clouds.  Precipitation will be unlikely.  A light to moderate wind will be prevalent for most of the day.

Figure 1.  Current surface map from The Weather Channel.  High-
pressure system currently centered over the Lower Peninsula
of Michigan.